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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction

The sequence of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is devoted on managing particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".

Nighttime Reality

As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.

Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.

Continuous Dangers

Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.

Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.

Every new approach from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This trend will, no doubt, continue.

Political Considerations

It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a assumption well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.

The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the coming year.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.

These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.

While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.